Even as labor markets remain firm and factory activity stabilizes, a wave of pessimism is washing over consumers and businesses. Surveys from the University of Michigan and The Conference Board show rapidly deteriorating expectations for personal finances and inflation—fueled by fears of higher costs from tariffs and potential global retaliation.
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Trump’s hardline trade stance—including threats of 200% tariffs on European spirits—has spooked markets and sparked hoarding in sectors like agriculture and alcohol. Yet while investor sentiment weakens, underlying economic data remains relatively steady. The Fed is holding rates, choosing patience over panic. The question now: will shaken confidence spiral into real economic softness—or can Trump’s structural reset push through the turbulence and deliver on its long-term promises?

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