Bond traders now see just over a 50% chance of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, down from 80% earlier, as strong economic data gives officials room for caution. The 10-year Treasury yield surged to 4.5%, the highest since May, following retail sales data revisions. 

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Fed Chair Jerome Powell and Boston Fed chief Susan Collins signaled that upcoming decisions depend on further data. Meanwhile, Wall Street economists have adjusted forecasts, with some predicting slower easing in 2025 under President-elect Trump, whose policies may influence inflation. Long-term yields rose sharply, reflecting concerns about larger deficits under Republican governance.

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