Despite markets, economists, and corporate leaders signaling alarm, Trump and his economic team remain defiant, dismissing recession concerns as growing pains in the transition to a private-sector-led economy. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent framed the downturn as a “necessary detox” from years of government-driven economic growth, arguing that deregulation and tariffs will ultimately create a stronger, more resilient economy.
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But Wall Street isn’t happy. JPMorgan’s recession probability model has jumped from 17% to 31% since November, with key economic indicators—factory activity, consumer confidence, and spending—showing clear signs of contraction. Meanwhile, Trump’s tariff strategy remains unpredictable, with repeated reversals leaving businesses scrambling to adjust. In a Fox Business interview, Trump suggested that tariffs “could go up over time,” signaling that the White House remains committed to an aggressive trade stance—despite its mild inflationary effects and damage to business sentiment. As the administration fights the narrative of a failing economy, markets are left navigating uncertainty, volatility, and a deteriorating economic backdrop.

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