U.S. Presidential Elections, Polls and Betting Markets

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With Election Day now just two days away, Saturday night delivered a surprising turn in betting markets. Trump’s three-week rise in odds, peaking at 66.6% on Polymarket, dropped to 56% within two days. On other betting platforms, the odds are nearly even at 50/50. This comes shortly after surprising poll results in Iowa, where a Des Moines Register poll shows Kamala Harris leading Trump by three points, reflecting a seven-point shift since September. However, an Emerson College poll released the same day has Trump leading by ten points, suggesting the Des Moines Register poll might be an outlier. The traditionally Republican-leaning state now shows increased support for Harris among women, largely due to her campaign’s focus on abortion rights. These contrasting results highlight a tight race with varying outcomes in the final days.

What Happens to the Economy if Trump Wins?

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A Trump victory in 2024 could bring significant policy shifts. He may replace Federal Reserve Chair Powell and adjust monetary policy, introduce new tariffs on China, and intensify immigration enforcement. Deregulation in energy and tech could expand, while the 2017 tax cuts may be extended with potential additional reforms. Trump aims for Big Pharma reform through an alliance with RFK Jr. and seeks a peace deal in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Government spending cuts might target green energy, media censorship could be challenged, and national security alliances could shift under his leadership.

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