TLDR

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Car Rush Before Prices Surge – Dealers nationwide reported a surge in demand as consumers raced to buy before prices jump $5,000–$12,000 per vehicle. While Trump urged calm and floated loan interest deductions, inventory shortages and panic buying mirror pandemic-era behavior. Tesla and Rivian emerged as tariff-safe winners, but supply constraints limit upside.

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Allies Retaliate, Order Frays – The global response was swift: Germany called for EU countermeasures, Canada labeled the tariffs “economic aggression,” and Japan, France, and Korea are preparing retaliatory strikes. The international rules-based order is under siege, with April 2 shaping up to be a watershed moment in U.S.-allied trade relations.

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The Real DOGE: Debt, Oil, Gold, Equities – The macro landscape now hinges on DOGE—Debt, Oil, Gold, Equities—not meme coins. With $10T in U.S. issuance looming, interest costs ballooning, and trust in Treasuries deteriorating, gold has become the de facto store of value, outpacing bonds in every major currency. Oil remains the missing bear signal, but if energy spikes while ROIC stalls, equity markets could face systemic repricing.

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“Lagnificent 7” Replace the Mag 7 – The Magnificent 7 tech giants are showing fatigue. AI capex is peaking, valuations stretched, and new players like DeepSeek threaten cost leadership. Microsoft scaled back data center builds, and investor flows are rotating toward international markets and commodities. Big Tech’s dominance is waning as leadership broadens and regulatory pressures rise.

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Market Meltdown: $2 Trillion Wiped Out in 72 Hours

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From Wednesday to Friday, the S&P 500 lost an astonishing $100 billion per trading hour—totaling $2 trillion in just three sessions. Then, as if on cue, S&P futures erased another $120 billion within minutes after the close. What triggered this historic volatility? The unraveling began when investors—lulled into a false sense of stability—were blindsided by President Trump’s sudden announcement of 25% auto tariffs. Markets had priced in a pause, believing tariff threats had peaked. Instead, the rug was pulled. The result? One of the most violent bull traps in recent memory. Confidence collapsed, producers panicked, and the U.S. posted a record $301 billion two-month trade deficit—twice the historical norm. This wasn’t just a market reaction; it was a systemic repricing of risk, policy, and geopolitical stability.

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Auto Tariff Surprise Ends Early-Week Rally

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Stocks kicked off the week in rally mode, building on post-Fed optimism—until it all came crashing down. Midweek, President Trump abruptly announced a 25% tariff on imported autos and parts beginning April 3, reversing earlier signals of delay. The S&P 500 quickly gave up its gains, sliding more than 2% by Friday as investors reassessed earnings potential across the auto, tech, and consumer sectors. What was shaping up to be a soft landing week morphed into a panic-driven retreat. Trump’s tariff flip-flop introduced new inflation risks and reignited fears of a trade war with key allies. Foreign automakers like Toyota and BMW found themselves directly in the crosshairs. Dealerships scrambled to offload inventory ahead of the deadline, while news of looming retaliation from Europe and Canada only deepened the sense of unpredictability. Trump’s so-called “Liberation Day” is fast becoming a macro inflection point.

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Buyers Stampede for Cars as Trump Urges Calm

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With warnings that vehicle prices could surge $5,000 to $12,000 after April 3, consumers are rushing showrooms nationwide. From Buffalo to LA, floor traffic is soaring and inventory is thinning as automakers fast-track shipments to meet demand. Tesla and Rivian—now spotlighted by Trump as the only “100% American-made” carmakers—are emerging as rare winners, albeit with limited supply. Still, in a press appearance Friday, Trump urged consumers not to panic and floated a tax break for interest on loans used to purchase U.S.-made vehicles. But the damage may already be done. Dealers say the frenzy mirrors pandemic-era hoarding, while supply chains still reeling from chip shortages are bracing for fresh disruptions. The sudden policy shift has left automakers and consumers scrambling for clarity. This isn't just a run on cars—it’s a reaction to rising uncertainty, with price pain likely to linger long after the initial shock.

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Global Allies Lash Out as U.S. Escalates Alone

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The international blowback to Trump’s tariff reversal has been fast—and fierce. Germany’s Economy Minister demanded a “decisive EU response,” while France is pushing Brussels to activate its harshest trade countermeasures. Canada’s Prime Minister Carney slammed the tariffs as “economic aggression,” pledging to rally the G7 against what he calls Trump’s “extremist” trade doctrine. Meanwhile, Japan and South Korea are preparing targeted retaliations of their own. At the heart of the outrage isn’t just the tariffs—it’s the unpredictability. Just weeks ago, the White House signaled delay. Now, the auto tariffs are live, and more are coming. Trump has vowed further levies if countries “coordinate economic harm” against the U.S., transforming a policy shift into a full-scale geopolitical rupture. With the dollar weakening, inflation flaring, and trade rules upended, April 2 now looms not as a headline event—but a potential global realignment.

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Why Markets Are Reacting to More Than Just Tariffs

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This week's $2 trillion market wipeout isn’t just a response to tariffs—it’s the beginning of a deeper reckoning. Investors are no longer just pricing in interest rates, inflation, or earnings—they’re now pricing in governance uncertainty. What rattled the markets wasn’t merely the content of Trump’s auto tariff announcement, but the process: a total reversal of prior White House messaging, announced unilaterally, with little warning or institutional oversight.
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In just 60 days, the Trump administration has issued over 90 executive orders, dismantled independent agencies, and handed sweeping powers to allies like Elon Musk—now heading the loosely defined Department of Government Efficiency. With Musk reportedly accessing agency budgets and pushing layoffs across departments, the guardrails of the administrative state are being re-engineered in real time. Congress, meanwhile, has offered virtually no assistance.
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On top of Trump's efforts to reduce tariffs on American goods by placing reciprocal tariffs (or greater) on other countries, underlying economic data is showing continued signs of decay. Automobile repossessions recently hit highs last seen during the 2008 recession.

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Why Debt, Oil, Gold & Equities Now Dominate the Macro Landscape

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Forget memes—DOGE now stands for Debt, Oil, Gold, and Equities, the four real variables driving the market cycle in 2025. In a world shaped by political disruption, fiscal overreach, and monetary distortion, understanding how each pillar interacts is essential for portfolio resilience. As The Macro Butler writes in ZeroHedge, these elements reveal the true health of the global economy beyond headlines and hype.

Debt: The Unsustainable Foundation

Despite the Department of Government Efficiency's headline cuts, U.S. fiscal deterioration is accelerating. In February alone, the government spent $603B—twice its revenue intake—adding $307B to the deficit. The FY2025 deficit now stands at $1.147T, and the Treasury must refinance $8.7T more by year-end. That’s over $10T in new issuance in just nine months.

Gold: Hedging Counterparty and Currency Risk

Gold’s strength isn’t just about inflation—it's about trust. Savvy investors buy gold not merely as a hedge against monetary debasement but as insurance against sovereign default and fiat collapse. The gold-to-Treasuries ratio continues to rise, underscoring that gold—not bonds—is the emerging store of value.

Since 2015, an ounce of gold has gone from buying 10 barrels of oil to buying 30–40, highlighting its growing scarcity premium. Central banks, especially China’s PBOC, are stockpiling gold while Western bond markets implode under political dysfunction. Gold has now outperformed U.S. government debt and equities across major currencies—including the yuan, euro, and franc—signaling a structural shift in capital allocation.

Oil: The Missing Bear Signal—For Now

Unlike gold, oil hasn’t yet broken out, keeping the S&P-to-oil ratio comfortably above its 7-year average. Historically, every major bear market has begun when both the S&P-to-oil and S&P-to-gold ratios fell below trend. Oil is the key input cost for economic activity—when energy becomes expensive relative to output, the economy breaks down. That hasn’t happened yet. But if oil begins to surge while equities lag, expect a full-blown crisis.

Equities: The Ownership Illusion?

The S&P-to-gold ratio has broken below its 7-year moving average—a technical signal that the market is shifting from risk assets to scarcity assets. The implication? We are entering an equity bear market. When debt balloons, oil rises, and gold outperforms, equities must be repriced to reflect risk—not hope. Traditional DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) models, based on “risk-free” rates, no longer hold water when bonds themselves carry counterparty risk.

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Global Flashpoints: Gaza, Ukraine, Greenland Heat Up

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Geopolitical tensions continue to surge across multiple regions. In Gaza, Israel has launched new ground operations in Rafah and resumed airstrikes after a truce collapse. A proposed 50-day ceasefire tied to the release of five Israeli hostages has been met with a counteroffer from Israel, signaling fragile diplomacy amid escalating violence. Anti-hamas protests erupted across Gaza with Hamas turning their terror tactics on Palestinians to quiet them.

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In Ukraine, President Zelensky faces growing pressure as Russia intensifies drone attacks and the Trump administration offers a controversial economic pact that would give the U.S. first rights to Ukrainian natural resources—an offer Kyiv is expected to reject.

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Meanwhile, U.S. Vice President JD Vance’s visit to Greenland stoked a diplomatic rift with Denmark, accusing it of failing to secure the Arctic territory. With Trump declaring Greenland essential for global security and Putin bolstering Russian forces in the Arctic, the region is rapidly becoming a high-stakes chessboard for global power.

Last Week's Market Performance
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It was a choppy week on Wall Street as tariff tensions and a hotter-than-expected inflation print rattled markets. The S&P 500 fell 1.5%, with tech leading losses (Info Tech -3.7%, Telecom -3.2%). Defensive sectors outperformed: Consumer Staples +1.7%, Real Estate +1.3%, and Energy +0.8% showed resilience. Industrials, Healthcare, and Financials posted modest declines, while Utilities held nearly flat (-0.2%). The rotation into safety and value reflected investor caution ahead of April 2’s “Liberation Day” tariff implementation and rising geopolitical uncertainty. Volatility surged, with the VIX up 12.3% to 21.65.

Upcoming Events This Week
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Investors will be laser-focused on April 2nd as the U.S. rolls out reciprocal tariffs, including a 25% duty on auto imports—potentially escalating the global trade war. Key U.S. data drops include the March jobs report and ISM PMIs, offering clues on labor strength and business activity. Globally, eyes turn to China’s official and Caixin PMIs, Japan’s Tankan survey, Eurozone inflation, and Germany’s factory orders.

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Company News

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LevelFields AI Stock Alerts Last Week

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LXRX Skyrockets +64% on $1B Novo Nordisk Licensing Deal

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Lexicon Pharmaceuticals (LXRX) soared +64% in one day after securing a licensing agreement with Novo Nordisk for its LX9851 compound. The deal includes over $1 billion in potential milestone payments and royalties, marking a major win for the biotech firm. Investors reacted swiftly to the blockbuster contract, driving LXRX to one of the biggest daily gains across biotech this quarter.

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JFIN Surges +25% After Earnings Beat & Dividend Boost

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Jiayin Group (JFIN) jumped over 25% in a single day following a strong earnings report and news of a dividend increase. The fintech firm distributed $26.6 million in dividends during 2024, signaling robust profitability and shareholder-friendly capital allocation. The rally reflects renewed investor confidence in JFIN’s growth trajectory and commitment to returning value amid rising sector competition.

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Goldman Initiates ‘Buy’ on Las Vegas Sphere

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Shares of Sphere Entertainment (SPHR) have cratered -36% from their February highs amid fears over MSG Networks’ looming debt issues, but Goldman Sachs says the market is overreacting. Initiating coverage with a Buy and $42 price target (+24% upside), analysts argue investors are mispricing the Sphere’s long-term potential.

Key takeaways from Goldman’s bullish call:

• Undervalued asset: The Las Vegas Sphere—home to the largest 16K LED wraparound screen in the world—is driving ticketed event growth and premium experiences.
• Franchise potential: Expansion to global cities could add “tens of millions” in operating income through royalty fees alone.
• Overblown risk: Fears that MSG Networks’ debt restructuring will destroy value are “exaggerated.”

Goldman forecasts Sphere adjusted operating income rising from -$20M in 2024 to $158M by 2027, outperforming Street estimates. They also note show counts could rival Madison Square Garden’s entire 5-venue portfolio by 2027. While short interest remains elevated (29.5% of float), analysts believe the venue’s ability to reinvent content—plus optionality on global Sphere builds—sets it up for multiyear growth, not a “newness” fade.

CoreWeave’s $1.5B IPO Lands Flat as AI Hype Faces Skepticism

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After much anticipation, CoreWeave (CRWV) debuted Friday on the Nasdaq—raising $1.5 billion in the largest U.S. tech IPO since 2021—but the stock closed flat at $40, reflecting cautious sentiment despite its AI exposure.
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Core details:

• Downsized deal: Target range was $47–$55; CoreWeave priced at the low end and trimmed fundraising by $1B.

• Microsoft risk: MSFT makes up 62% of CoreWeave’s revenue, creating heavy customer concentration risk.

• Cash burn warning: CoreWeave lost $863M in 2024 and has raised $13B in debt to finance GPU-heavy AI infrastructure.
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Founded in 2017, CoreWeave rents Nvidia GPUs to AI firms like OpenAI, Meta, and IBM—but critics are drawing WeWork comparisons due to high CapEx, debt reliance, and alleged “revenue round-tripping” with Nvidia and Microsoft.
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Legendary short-seller Jim Chanos added fuel to the fire, warning about Nvidia’s recent attempt to buy Lepton AI, calling it a possible red flag for hiding inventory or inflating revenue. With the AI trade under pressure and tech stocks down double digits YTD, CoreWeave’s IPO may be more of a red flag than a green light.

Microsoft Retreats from AI Data Center Buildout Amid Oversupply

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Microsoft has quietly pulled back from data center projects totaling 2 gigawatts across the U.S. and Europe, citing oversupply relative to demand, according to TD Cowen. The move includes scrapped leases once intended to support OpenAI training workloads.
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The decision signals growing caution around AI infrastructure overbuild, just as investor concerns rise over high CapEx with slow returns. Alibaba’s Joe Tsai recently warned of a “$500B AI data center bubble,” while new players like China’s DeepSeek offer cheaper AI alternatives.
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Google and Meta are stepping in to absorb Microsoft’s vacated capacity, even as Microsoft maintains plans to spend $80B this year—now at a more measured pace.
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Meanwhile, Microsoft secured approval for a new Dublin data center, showing it’s still selectively expanding in high-demand markets.
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The pullback reflects a cooling AI narrative and a more disciplined approach to infrastructure spend—raising fresh questions about long-term ROI in the sector.

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Magnificent 7 Morphs Into the “Lagnificent” 7

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After two years of dominance, the mighty Magnificent 7—Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Tesla—are finally showing signs of fatigue. These tech titans once carried U.S. equity markets on their backs, peaking at a staggering 35% of the S&P 500’s market cap in December 2024. But as Michael Hartnett of BofA puts it, the “Mag 7” trade may be transitioning into the “Lagnificent 7.”

The AI narrative that propelled Big Tech to record valuations is now meeting resistance. China’s DeepSeek has undercut Western AI costs, Microsoft is scaling back data center leases, and global capex in hyperscaler infrastructure is forecast to peak this year. With average P/Es stretched above 60x at their peak, investors are questioning whether the growth narrative still justifies the price.

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Upcoming Earnings
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