Macrosynthesis

TLDR

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Trump Rekindles Crypto Trade With Social Media Posts (above) - Trump lifted a gloomy week for crypto by posting plans for a U.S. crypto reserve.

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Liquidity Collapse Fuels Market Selloff – A $2.7 Trillion options expiration drained liquidity, with Goldman Sachs reporting a 65% drop in S&P 500 top-of-book liquidity. Institutional deleveraging and retail exhaustion pushed the S&P 500 down -1.7% and the Nasdaq 100 -2.1%, breaking key technical levels.

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Market Jitters Surge on Trump-Zelensky Fallout – A heated dispute between President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky led to the cancellation of a critical minerals deal, triggering uncertainty in U.S.-Ukraine relations.

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Consumer Spending Sees Steepest Drop in 4 Years – Inflation-adjusted PCE fell -0.5% in January, with durable goods spending plunging -3.0%. While personal incomes rose, economic fragility and looming tariffs could dampen confidence, raising recession concerns.

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Trump Tariffs Threaten Trade Stability – The administration’s plan to impose 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian imports rattled markets. Mexico and Canada scramble for concessions, while supply chain disruptions and inflationary risks escalate investor uncertainty.

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Market Jitters Escalate Amid Geopolitical Tensions and Uncertainty

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Volatility surged last week as geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty rattled financial markets. A heated exchange between U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky led to the abrupt cancellation of a key minerals deal, casting doubt over the stability of U.S.-Ukraine relations. The diplomatic fallout triggered a flight to safety, with the dollar strengthening and crude oil swinging between gains and losses. Meanwhile, economic data sent mixed signals—January’s PCE inflation met expectations, but the Atlanta Fed slashed its Q1 GDPNow forecast from +2.3% to -1.5%, fueling concerns over a potential slowdown in growth. Elon Musk posted on X that GDP should be measured sans government spending, since the government spending is driving up GDP artificially. Given that, the Fed's getting bad information about the true state of the U.S. economy.
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Treasury yields fell as investors bought government bonds, which can be interpreted as fearing economic slowdown and increased confidence the U.S. can pay its debt on bonds. As traders assess whether last week’s turmoil was a temporary shakeout or the start of a broader correction, attention now turns to liquidity conditions and how big institutions are positioning portfolios, which may hold the key to market direction in the coming weeks.

Last Week’s Market Selloff: Technical Flows and Retail Exhaustion

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Markets suffered one of the sharpest selloffs in months last week, driven by technical unwinds, institutional deleveraging, and weakening retail investor demand. A $2.7 trillion options expiration event drained liquidity, exacerbating downside volatility. The S&P 500 dropped -1.3%, the Nasdaq 100 tumbled -3.7%, while small-cap stocks dropped -1.8%. The selloff was more pronounced than it seems, given there was a big rebound in stocks late Friday.
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Goldman Sachs projected up to $67.66 billion in forced equity selling under a “down tape” scenario, intensifying the pressure. At the same time, retail investors, who had been steady buyers for 28 consecutive days earlier in the year, abruptly reversed course, turning net sellers in four of the last five days. The combination of institutional repositioning and retail exhaustion forced the S&P below critical technical levels, breaking both its 50-day and 100-day moving averages—historically a sign of further downside risk.
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This past week, the S&P 500 sectors saw mixed performance, with Financials (+2.8%) leading the gains, followed by Real Estate (+2.1%), Healthcare (+1.7%), and Consumer Staples (+1.3%) as investors leaned toward defensive and income-generating sectors. Industrials (+1.1%), Materials (+0.7%), and Energy (+0.1%) also posted modest gains. On the downside, Information Technology (-4.0%) saw the steepest decline, dragging the market lower, while Telecom (-2.6%) and Consumer Discretionary (-2.1%) also faced selling pressure. Utilities (-1.5%) struggled as well, possibly reacting to shifting interest rate expectations. The divergence in sector performance suggests a rotation out of growth and into lower volatility and value-oriented stocks.
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Trump Reignites Crypto Trade With Social Media Posts

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Former U.S. President Donald Trump announced on Truth Social the inclusion of five digital assets in a planned U.S. strategic cryptocurrency reserve, sending their market values surging on Sunday. Trump stated that his January executive order on digital assets would establish a reserve featuring Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH), XRP, Solana (SOL), and Cardano (ADA). The specific tokens had not been disclosed until now. Over an hour later, he reiterated: "And, obviously, BTC and ETH, as other valuable cryptocurrencies, will be at the heart of the Reserve."
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Following the announcement, Bitcoin jumped over 10%, while Ether surged 11 percent. XRP, the token associated with Ripple Labs, also gained attention. Ripple has actively backed a super PAC aiming to influence crypto-friendly policies in the upcoming U.S. congressional elections, according to Reuters.

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Liquidity Collapse and the Emerging “Buyers’ Strike”

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Beyond the technical selloff, a deeper issue is weighing on the market: a collapse in liquidity. Goldman Sachs reported a 65% drop in top-of-book liquidity for the S&P 500 over the past two weeks, making it increasingly difficult for large trades to execute without excessive price slippage. This thinning liquidity has fueled dramatic swings in stock prices, leaving traders reluctant to buy into weakness. Put plainly, there aren't enough buyers.
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Long-only funds, once a stabilizing force, turned into aggressive net sellers last week, recording their largest selling skew since the 2022 market correction. Meanwhile, sentiment indicators are flashing red—AAII’s bearish sentiment reading hit its fourth-highest level in 30 years, a level historically associated with market bottoms or steeper corrections. Hedge funds have reduced exposure to the “Magnificent Seven” tech stocks, and short interest is climbing across the S&P 500, signaling an increasingly defensive stance.
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With liquidity constraints and institutional caution dominating, traders are looking to Pi Day (March 14th) as a potential market inflection point based on historical seasonal trends. However, without a clear macro catalyst, the risk of continued downside remains high. For now, markets appear stuck in a defensive posture, waiting for a stronger bid to emerge before a sustainable recovery can take shape.
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Consumer Spending Falters as Market Uncertainty Weighs

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Amid heightened volatility and liquidity concerns, U.S. consumer spending took an unexpected hit in January, registering its steepest monthly decline in nearly four years. Inflation-adjusted personal consumption expenditures (PCE) fell 0.5%, with durable goods purchases plunging 3.0%, led by a sharp drop in auto sales. Non-durable goods spending edged 0.2% lower, while services spending slowed to 0.3% growth - half the pace of the previous month. The downturn raises concerns over whether this signals a broader economic slowdown or a temporary pullback following strong holiday spending.
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Despite softer consumption, personal income rose 0.9%, driven by wage growth and a cost-of-living adjustment for Social Security recipients. Inflation-adjusted disposable income rose 0.6%, pushing the savings rate to its highest level since June. While rising incomes could support demand, market fragility and impending tariff adjustments may weigh on consumer sentiment in the coming months, increasing the risk of a more sustained slowdown.
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Inflation and Fed Policy: Positive Signals Amid Growing Market Anxiety

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While declining consumer spending hints at potential economic softness, the latest inflation data presents a more positive picture. The core PCE index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge, rose 0.3% month-over-month and 2.6% year-over-year, maintaining its slowest annual pace since early 2021. Core services prices (excluding housing and energy) climbed 0.2%, while goods prices (excluding food and energy) posted their largest monthly increase in over a year at 0.4%.
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The inflation reading keeps the Fed in a delicate balancing act. While price pressures appear to be moderating, the potential impact of Trump’s proposed tariffs and shifting trade policies could alter inflation expectations. Market reactions were mixed—Treasury bond prices rose with higher demand, while the S&P 500 opened lower, reflecting ongoing uncertainty about the Fed’s next move. With February payroll data due on March 7, investors remain cautious as policymakers navigate a complex economic landscape.
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Treasury Yields Fall as Economic Growth Concerns Deepen

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The 10-year Treasury yield slid to its lowest level of the year, reflecting mounting economic uncertainty and shifting rate expectations. Yields dropped over 10 basis points to 4.29%, marking a significant retreat from their January peak of 4.8%. The decline was fueled by weak consumer confidence data, coupled with fears that Trump administration policies on trade and fiscal tightening could slow economic momentum. The Conference Board’s index - a measure of leading indicators of economic strength - fell to its lowest level since June, raising concerns that the post-pandemic era of robust consumer spending may be waning.
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Investors are now fully pricing in two Fed rate cuts for 2025, betting that weakening economic indicators will push policymakers to ease monetary policy. Strong demand for Treasuries in recent auctions highlights a flight to safety, with traders seeking shelter amid stock market volatility and slowing growth signals. If economic conditions deteriorate further, analysts suggest the 10-year yield could test its 200-day moving average of 4.25%, reinforcing fears of a potential downturn.
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Zelensky Kicked Out of the White House

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The high-stakes meeting between President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky took an unexpected and highly public turn, unraveling into a heated confrontation that ended without a signed minerals deal and left U.S.-Ukraine relations in disarray. The diplomatic fallout was swift—Trump accused Zelensky of "overplaying his hand" by pushing for additional U.S. security guarantees beyond what was initially agreed upon with Sec. of State Marco Rubio. According to government sources, the meeting with Zelensky was believed to be a signing event, not a renegotiation of terms. Vice President JD Vance escalated tensions by questioning Zelensky’s approach, prompting an on-camera spat that led to the Ukrainian leader’s abrupt departure from the White House.
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The deal in question would have given the U.S. access to Ukraine’s critical minerals, including lithium and rare earth elements, used in electronics and military weapons, in exchange for economic support. However, Zelensky’s insistence on explicit U.S. security commitments, combined with Trump’s firm stance against further entanglement, shattered any immediate progress. Trump later stated, “He can come back when he is ready for peace,” signaling a firm departure from prior U.S. policies that unconditionally backed Ukraine. The fallout has left European allies scrambling, with leaders reaffirming their commitment to Kyiv as the U.S. position remains uncertain.
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Rare earth minerals stock, MP, rose on the news, while European defense contractor, Rheinmetal, soared.  
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Trade Tensions Rise: Trump’s Tariffs Set to Shake Markets

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Following the dramatic breakdown in U.S.-Ukraine relations, the geopolitical turmoil is now extending to North American trade, as President Trump prepares to impose sweeping tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico starting March 4. The move was framed as a way to incentivize Mexico and Canada to move faster to block illicit fentanyl trafficking. Trump’s plan includes a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada, with an additional 10% tariff on Canadian energy products such as oil and electricity.  This impacts U.S. cars manufactured in Mexico/Canada, timber, oil, alcohol, agricultural products, aluminum, auto parts, medical devices, beer, and electronics.
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In response, Mexico and Canada have begun scrambling for concessions. Mexico has signaled willingness to impose its own tariffs on Chinese imports to align with U.S. trade priorities, while Canadian officials are exploring potential countermeasures. However, Trump’s aggressive tariff strategy risks triggering retaliatory actions, which could disrupt supply chains and push prices higher for American consumers. With markets already on edge, investors are bracing for heightened volatility as trade disputes escalate.
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Upcoming Events This Week

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In the U.S., investors will track the January jobs report, trade tariff updates, ISM Manufacturing and Services PMI, factory orders, foreign trade data, and Fed speeches. In the Euro Area, key events include the ECB rate decision, January inflation figures, and unemployment data.

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Natural Gas

-7.14%  (1W Chg)

+20.15% (YTD Chg)

Gasoline

+9.8% (1W Chg)

+10.87% (YTD Chg)

Silver

-4.24% (1W Chg)

+7.8% (YTD Chg)

Eggs

+13.6% (1M Chg)

+38.64% (YTD Chg)

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Company News

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LevelFields AI Stock Alerts Last Week

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Massive Stock Buyback Fuels Owens & Minor Rally – OMI +39% (1D) after announcing a $100M share repurchase program, signaling confidence in future growth and capital efficiency.

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Bitdeer Surges on Buyback Announcement – BTDR +14% (1D) following approval of a S$20M stock buyback, reinforcing management’s commitment to shareholder returns amid volatility in the crypto mining sector.

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Banco Latinoamericano Soars on Dividend Hike – BLX +7.3% (1D) after boosting its dividend by 25%, highlighting strong earnings momentum and improved capital deployment strategies.

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Nvidia Earnings: Record Revenue but Market Volatility

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Nvidia (NVDA) posted Q4 revenue of $39.3B, up 78% YoY, with data center sales surging 93% to $35.6B as AI demand remained strong. EPS hit $0.89, surpassing expectations. The company projected Q1 revenue of $43B, slightly above forecasts.
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Despite beating estimates, shares fell 8.5%, wiping out $273B in market value, as investors reacted to declining gross margins and concerns over AI competition. CEO Jensen Huang emphasized unprecedented demand for Blackwell GPUs, but tariff risks and efficiency gains in AI models have fueled uncertainty.
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Nvidia's chips are built in Taiwan. In recent weeks, Trump has threatened to place 100% tariffs on imports from Taiwan and block exports of semiconductor chips to China - both threats to Nvidia's revenues.
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Progyny Beats Revenue Expectations but Faces Slower Growth in 2025

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Progyny is a healthcare benefits provider specializing in fertility and family-building solutions for employers. The company partners with organizations to offer comprehensive fertility treatment coverage, including in-vitro fertilization (IVF), egg freezing, and pharmacy benefits.
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In Q4 2024, Progyny reported $298.4M in revenue (+10.6% YoY), with fertility benefit services up 9% and pharmacy benefit services rising 13%. Gross profit increased 11% to $63.4M, but net income fell 22% YoY to $10.5M due to higher tax provisions. The company ended the year with 473 clients, a 20.7% increase.
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For full-year 2024, revenue reached $1.17B (+7.2% YoY), but profit margins compressed to 4.7%. 2025 guidance projects slower growth (1-5%) following the loss of a major client. However, expansion to 530+ clients covering 6.7M lives highlights sustained demand for fertility benefits.
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Duolingo Posts Record Revenue, But Stock Plunges on AI Concerns

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Duolingo (DUOL), the leading language-learning platform, reported Q4 2024 revenue of $151.1M (+39% YoY), driven by a 51% increase in daily active users (DAUs) and 42% growth in total bookings. However, shares plunged 17% as investors reacted to higher AI-driven costs and a slowdown in revenue growth projections for 2025.
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• Subscription growth remained strong, with Duolingo Max and Family Plan adoption rising—the latter now comprising 23% of total subscribers.
• AI-driven content expansion in Math and Music courses boosted engagement but weighed on margins.
• Gross margins to decline by 170 bps in 2025 due to AI-related investments, though management expects long-term cost efficiencies.
• 2025 guidance projects $1B+ in bookings, with subscription revenue expected to grow 31%.

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Despite strong user growth, slower revenue expansion and AI costs are pressuring investor sentiment.
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Snowflake Surges on Strong Q4 Earnings and AI Expansion

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Snowflake (SNOW) shares rose 4.5% after the cloud data company beat Q4 earnings estimates and unveiled an expanded AI partnership with Microsoft Azure.
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• Revenue: $987M (+27% YoY), exceeding expectations of $956M.
• EPS: $0.30 (vs. $0.17 expected), showcasing improving profitability.
• Product revenue: $943M (+28% YoY), surpassing the $914M estimate.
• Guidance: FY25 product revenue expected at $4.28B, above $4.21B forecast.
• CEO Sridhar Ramaswamy emphasized Snowflake’s AI leadership, citing 4,000+ customers using AI/ML tools. However, Q1 product revenue guidance ($955M-$961M) fell slightly short, signaling a potential near-term slowdown.

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Snowflake continues to cement itself as a key AI-driven enterprise data platform, despite market concerns over growth normalization.

Super Micro Beats Earnings, Expands AI Infrastructure

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Super Micro Computer (SMCI) continues to navigate strong growth, regulatory scrutiny, and market volatility following its latest earnings report. The company successfully filed its delayed financial reports, avoiding a potential Nasdaq delisting, and CEO Charles Liang reaffirmed an ambitious $40 billion revenue target for 2025. However, recent insider stock sales have raised concerns, as cofounder Sara Liang and Senior VP George Kao collectively sold $5.9 million worth of shares. Meanwhile, Liang received a grant of 1 million stock options after meeting revenue growth milestones.
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Amid these developments, Super Micro is aggressively expanding its infrastructure to capitalize on the growing demand for AI-powered data centers. The company announced plans for a third Silicon Valley campus, expected to span nearly 3 million square feet upon completion. This expansion is aimed at scaling production of liquid-cooled AI servers, a critical component for data centers running high-performance workloads. Super Micro is positioning itself as a leader in AI infrastructure, leveraging its deep partnership with Nvidia to provide cutting-edge solutions for enterprise clients.
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Despite these growth initiatives, regulatory risks remain a key concern. The company is still under investigation by the SEC and DOJ following prior allegations of accounting irregularities, and it faces multiple shareholder lawsuits.
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Upcoming Earnings

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This section is here for information only. It's not any endorsement. We will bold stocks included in previous alerts, or if they are market bellwhethers.

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MON.

Plug Power (PLUG), Okta (OKTA), ADMA Biologics (ADMA)

TUES.

Target (TGT), AutoZone (AZO), ON Semiconductor (ON), Best Buy (BBY)

WED.

Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF), Victoria's Secret (VSCO)

THURS.

BJ's Wholesale (BJ), Macy's (M), Broadcom (AVGO), Costco Wholesale (COST), Gap (GAP), Smith & Wesson Brands (SWBI)

FRI.

No Notable Earnings

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This is not financial advice. All information represent opinions only for informational purposes. Given the vast number of stocks we cover in these reports, assume staff covering stocks have positions in stocks discussed.
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